A company prepares to introduce a new beverage. In the past, the success rate for a new product launch has been 40%. Historically, 80% of the successful product launches have received favorable reports in the market research analysis. Even 30% of the unsuccessful product launches have received favorable market research feedback. Which of the choices is the probability that the new beverage will be successful given that it receives a positive marketing research report?
A.  0.64
B.  0.40
C.  0.80
D.  0.36
Answer:A
P(successful launch) = P(S) = 0.40
P(unsuccessful launch) = p(SC)= 0.60
P(favorable report∣successful launch) = P(F∣S) = 0.80
P(F∣SC) = 0.30
Hence, the probability that the new beverage will be successful given that it receives a positive marketing research report is 0.64. In other words, the probability of an unsuccessful product launch given a positive marketing research report is 1 - 0.64 = 0.36.